ATLANTA, GEORGIA -- John McCain has all but erased Barack Obama's lead for the race for the 2008 Presidency. From John Zogby's August 20th polling data showing McCain with a sizable 5 point advantage to other highly respected polls declaring a statistical dead head, the dreadful August of past for Democratic nominees has resurfaced. Obama was supposed to be different, a new candidate of unprecedented charisma and charm. Add to the notion of the dismal approval ratings of the Bush presidency, one can only ask themselves what has happened to Barack Obama and will it continue. Unfortunately, for Democrats, the answer is a likely yes, as 9 troubling signs point to a likely McCain victory in November.
1. Obama is highly scripted and it's starting to show. A candidate, first and foremost, should have a sound and comprehensive understanding of all social and economic issues and forces facing the country. Obama skillfully dodged direct questions during the democratic primaries, as questions were carefully screened in all but obvious vetting process for all major candidates, Hillary Clinton included. His first unscripted test came at the faith forum, as Obama looked puzzled, stuttering and mumbling many answers, with a body language that clearly showed he was uncomfortable. McCain, on the other hand, an advocate of open town hall forums, delighted in the test, answering questions with a clear conviction, coupled with jovial one-liners, putting many people at ease and comfort with the Republican nominee. One can only wonder what will happen when McCain's gloves comes off during the presidential debates, along with Obama getting hit with serious questions on many issues he has minimal knowledge of. Many political observers are now seeing the debates as a possible glaring weakness for Obama. The more you push the freshman Senator from Illinois in debates, the more agitated and uncomfortable he seems to become.
2. Reagan Democrats will likely migrate to McCain. Fresh in the eyes of many Americans is that of a renegade John McCain, a political figure who truly appeals to independents, working class rural voters, and many Reagan Democrats of the rust belt. From Michigan to Pennsylvania, the country is full of hard-working rural white voters who sympathize with McCain's history. From a Vietnam POW to crossing the aisle and working with Democrats, he seems to be a candidate that can lure these individuals back to the Republican Party. And why is this? Its due in large part to Obama's elitist image (probably somewhat unfair, but carefully crafted by the Clinton camp and McCain). Just ask voters about "clinging to their guns" or ask Barack Obama about his decisive losses to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Interestingly, did you notice Hillary's conservative message to voters during the crucial primary season in these very battleground Midwest states? She drank at a bar, embraced rural conservative democrats, and acted as she was the self-proclaimed conservative. Obama simply doesn't have the image to bring these voters into his camp. Add to the notion of the recent "stiffing" of Hillary Clinton for the number two spot (she was not even seriously vetted by the Obama Camp) and it makes for a daunting task for Obama to secure these voters.
3. The Clinton Factor. From Bill Clinton's finger waiving tantrums to Hillary's distant and separated "endorsement" of Obama, the Clinton's are angry, and they're letting the country know about it. Funny, how an internal memo recently leaked to a major publication, highlighting how McCain can defeat Obama, based on Barack's significant weaknesses in a number of areas. Moreover, it doesn't take a political expert to see the resentment, animosity, and distrust between the Clinton's and the Obama camp. As the former two-term president of the United States and somebody who brought the Democratic party back from the dead, Bill Clinton is demanding respect and unfortunately for Democrats, retribution. Will the Clinton's publicly not endorse or malign Obama? Of course not, but behind the scenes, a strategic plan is sure to play out whereby ardent Clinton supporters will be closing the curtains and voting for McCain, much to the delight of Bill and Hillary. Remember, an Obama victory all but ensures the end of a possible Clinton campaign for the presidency in 2012. One political insider has called the handling of Hillary Clinton by the Obama camp as "amateur hour", as they fail to recognize the strength and willingness of the Clinton's to fire back at all costs. Like all good soldiers, Clinton should rise above the personal animosity, campaigning in full force for Obama, but he simply won't. The idea of the former president keeping silent until November, publicly supporting Obama at any opportunity and not letting his tongue and finger waiving get the best of him is simply not going to happen. Then again, can you blame him and Hillary for Obama's much perceived dismissal of the Clinton's and the enormous political strength they still yield in this country? Many Democratic insiders say Obama has made a large error in judgment on this matter.
4. Biden is problematic. Take away his foreign policy credentials and tenure in the United States Senate, and Delaware Senator Joe Biden brings a host of ominous issues to the table. From his early days of plagiarism in law school to recent comments during the primary season about Obama, Biden is a man who simply talks too much and has not been fully vetted by today's media. Sure, he ran for President twenty years ago, but today's technology and transparency has turned many formidable politicians and their aspirations into political graves overnight. Biden's single digit electoral votes from Delaware don't help either, as Obama seeks to try and attack Republican held red states. What's more, crucial to Obama's victory will be the need to penetrate the Mason-Dixon Line, and it's not happening with Biden from Delaware, who many southerners view as nothing more than another northern state with a political figure out of touch with southern values. Biden may be able to garner blue collar, labor union votes in the crucial battleground states of the Midwest, but doubtful it will be enough to make a statistical difference. After all, he's not running for president, the voters know this, and Democratic vice presidential nominee coattails simply don't work; just ask Lloyd Bentsen and John Edwards. It's highly likely that between now and November, Biden will "surprise" us with a gaffe; a matter of fact direct comment that will unease the heavily scripted Obama camp.
5. The economy is McCain's strength. Unfortunately for Obama, a shifting economy either way more than likely spells trouble for the presumptive Democratic nominee. Here's how it works. If it gets bad and economic conditions worsen, are the voters going to trust the U.S. economy to a man who is a mere freshman term Senator? Though the maligning of Obama as somebody with little knowledge of the country's economic complexities is probably overstated, as advisors play key roles anyway (just ask Clinton and his heavy reliance on Robert Rubin), Republicans are sure to hammer away at his youth and inexperience. Even more, voters will ask themselves the same question with no real help needed from McCain. As for the economy strengthening, McCain will be able to calm the fear of voters, proclaiming the economy, much like the surge in Iraq, is coming back, and regaining momentum and will be fine. It's an unfortunate dilemma for Obama, which will only magnify in the coming weeks.
6. The Image Factor. Fair or not, this still is a country that clings to past values and virtues that we feel comfortable with. John McCain's maverick image, his prisoner of war status, and an almost "aw shucks" demeanor spell well for the Republican nominee when pitted against Barack Obama. Many Democrats I've talked to, some voting for Obama and others still uncertain, often ponder his name and his background, conversing on issues as simple as "how do you spell his name" to "why was he in Indonesia" as a boy. It's unfair, and without question Mr. Obama loves America, but the perception is that McCain, as many see it, is "more American". In retrospect, Senator Obama's trip to Europe was a highly miscalculated move, resulting in a backlash that many now perceive Obama as an elitist. The McCain camp was quick to notice this, unleashing one of the most comical web videos mocking Senator Obama and his celebrity status.Take it for what you want, but the image issue is yet another problematic concern for Barack Obama.
7. There's still a vetting process for Obama. The Illinois Senator's relationship with the highly controversial Rev. Wright may very well be just the beginning of what unfolds in the coming weeks. Republicans are surely holding back on other controversial topics until they need it most. As for McCain, he's a known figure for forty years, thoroughly vetted by the establishment. Like him or not, there's not much more you'll learn about the Arizona Senator, good or bad. As for Obama, he clearly knows the Republican machine will be hard at work trying to find any credible evidence that sparks controversy. History shows us (just ask Michael Dukakis about Willy Horton or John Kerry and the swift boat vets) that something will surface. How damaging it will be is unknown at this point.
8. McCain is the perfect candidate for the Republicans. Bill Clinton once stated that George W. Bush is one of the most conservative presidents ever. And though largely true, Bush's abysmal approval ratings have put the right wing base of the Republican Party under fierce attack. Sure, they're needed to establish and cement a core constituency of the party, but Republicans would be hard pressed to put forward a true conservative that can win the White House in 2008. Enter John McCain's centrist views and beliefs and you have a candidate that hopefully conservatives can stomach, while still being able to attract swing voters, and more importantly, Hillary Clinton defectors. Recent polls have shown that anywhere from 20 to 25 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters will back McCain, numbers that surely would be lower if a Huckabee or Romney were the nominee. Could the one time Clinton supporters that may now very well back McCain be the true swing voters of the election? I think this is highly possible. Karl Rove's assessment of McCain solidifies this view even more as he recently stated that the Republican Senator is best suited for this year's unique presidential election. based on his ability to attract these critical voting blocks.
9. Polls. Polls. Polls. What are we to make of them? A lot and then again, not much when you break them down. Remember Mike Dukakis' 18 point lead over George H.W. Walker Bush? We all saw the final outcome as 41 won in a landslide. The point to make is this: First, Dukakis never really had an 18 point lead as early polls are subjective. Second, with that theory holding true, Obama being behind or tied as of late August, this spells big trouble for the Illinois senator considering the fact that for a Democrat to be considered competitive, they hypothetically need to have a huge lead at this point to overcome a tightening of the polls in late October. However, the one exception that can be pointed out was that Bill Clinton's lead in the summer of 1992, which he was able to sustain. Though the differences between Clinton and Obama are vast, as Clinton had by that point solidified many core voting blocks, which Mr. Obama has not been able to win over. Again, more troublesome news for the freshman senator.
Final Analysis
The Electoral College for the 2008 presidency will largely mirror the 2004 election, with some notable differences that favor McCain. His maverick image will more than likely win over the "live free or die" New Hampshire voters, along with capturing the battleground state of Michigan, should Romney be his Vice Presidential nominee. Add it up and you have 295 electoral votes for McCain, with Obama at 243. With Romney absent from the ticket and Michigan staying blue, McCain still secures the White House, 278 to 260. Many Democrats have argued that a number of western states and other traditionally red southern states are in the mix. To be fair, Obama has polled strongly in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Colorado, the Dakotas and Nevada, but McCain is holding on to marginal, but real leads at this time. It would take a notable event to see a true 4 to 5 point swing, which is what's needed for an Obama victory in these states. Void of a running mate from the South, Obama's choice of Biden is further evidence of John McCain winning all states, from Texas to the Carolinas, for yet another four years, at least in terms of the presidential election.
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