SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA -- NFL picks and betting odds authority SBRforum.com announces its week 3 football picks for the 2011 NFL season. Our resident handicappers have made their free picks for the top upcoming games San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday September 25 at 1pm ET
San Francisco lost a heartbreaking week two game in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys after a gutsy return by Tony Romo late in the contest. The NFL betting lines opened up with Cincinnati as one point favorites and a total of 41, however, the Bengals quickly moved to -2 ½ or -3 favorites at home.
The Bengals have an ATS record of 2-0 to start the year, while the Niners are 1-0-1. I expect this game to be a roller coaster on both sides of the ball. Despite the Niners not being very good defending the pass, if they jump out on top early, they will try to feed Frank Gore a heavy load and control the clock. The Bengals couldn't run the ball at all last week and Cedric Benson shouldn't get any better against San Francisco.
The Niners will blitz Dalton early and often and force him make quick decisions. The Niners defense already has six sacks in 2011 to go along with 15 hits to the quarterback. I foresee a close game at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday afternoon with two teams who are trying to rebuild. However, the Niners are ahead in their parts, especially on offense and even more if Michael Crabtree and Braylon Edwards are healthy enough to play.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants - Sunday September 25 at 1pm ET
Philadelphia blew a 10-point lead in Sunday's fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons, losing the duel 35-31, as a 2 ½-point road favorite. The Eagles' defense gave up touchdowns in all five of Atlanta's red zone trips, while recording four sacks and two interceptions.
New York notched a 28-16 triumph in Monday's win as a seven-point home favorite against the St. Louis Rams. The Giants' offense controlled the ball for 34 minutes, while moving the chains for 22 first downs.
The 'under' is 5-2 in Philadelphia's last seven games that followed an affair with Andy Reid's crew giving up over 30 PPG. Look for the Eagles to tighten up again here and control the tempo at home for 'under' tickets to cash.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - Sunday September 25 at 1pm ET
The NFL schedule heads into the third week of action with both of these teams sitting in a three way tie at the top of the AFC East standings with the Jets at 2 wins - 0 loses.
The Bill's have surprised many NFL fans so far as they have been one of the top offenses in the league. Led by Harvard's own Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has the Bills new spread offense averaging a staggering (league leading) 39.5 points per game.
The point spread opened up at +10.5 for the Bills at Home, but has been pushed down by sharp money to + 9 at 5Dimes or as low as +8 at some shops. The total opened at 51 and quickly went up to 53.5.
Take the Patriots at -8 or even buy a point to knock it down to -7 for a 2 unit play. The over 53.5 is what everyone is hammering but I like the under 53.5 in NFL picks, as the Bills will want to control the clock with their run game. I would bet the under here for 1 unit
New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders - Sunday September 25 at 4pm ET
The New York Jets have started off their season with two home wins, cashing with a 1-1 spread mark. Rex Ryan's crew heads west for this Sunday's battle against the Oakland Raiders, who are 2-0 ATS after beginning their year with a pair of close contests.
Sportsbooks opened New York as 3 ½-point road 'chalk' on the NFL odds boards, while first setting the 'total' at 42. Early NFL betting action on Oakland and the 'under' dropped the numbers to three (minus 120) and 41, respectively.
New York's defense has allowed 13.5 PPG and 296.5 YPG, ranking Cromartie and Co. third and eighth in the league, respectively. The Jets have been particularly stingy against the run (88 YPG), which should thin the sizable numbers McFadden has had out of the Raiders' backfield thus far.
The Raiders' "D" has been lit up in both of its matchups so far, surrendering 29 PPG and 395.5 YPG en route to ranking 27th and 25th, respectively. The Jets should be able to move the ball with ease, targeting a repeat of their 38-0 blowout win in Oakland during the 2009 season.
In this NFL free pick I recommend laying the points, looking for the Jets to extend their winning streak in this week's matchup.
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